What comes after the honeymoon?
The Liberals got elected to do something impossible and they succeeded!
On a scale of “completely exhausted” to “can’t begin to express just how fucking over it I am,” how tired are you of Donald Trump?
I knew I wasn’t the only one.
Who knew electing a convicted felon would lead to such unpleasantness? And that was before the Epstein files made a comeback. In the middle of that we have the World’s Most Pointless Trade War to contend with, plus the usual aggravations.
It’s not going well.
The August 1 deadline came and went without the kind of Canada-US trade deal that would have made steel and aluminum industry folks breathe easier. Paul Wells did a good interview with Dominic LeBlanc about the negotiations and where we’re at — I encourage you to read it before I give you what I see in my crystal ball.
The thing that usually gets lost in these overly dramatic high-stakes negotiations are the small armies of Very Earnest Experts on both sides of the table doing incredible work preparing options and scenarios for decision-makers and being highly engaged with one another and, you know, behaving like grown-ups. These people are the primary reason why our big tariffs aren’t as impactful as they might otherwise be. You think Trump looks at the details of what’s included in the CUSMA carve-out?
Ha.
Yet there is hope. Mostly on the American side, if and when enough business leaders speak up and tell their president, “Mr. President, with due respect, sir, sit your ass down and stop touching buttons. We’re hurting here and we need to get this shit back under control.”
Yeah, well, maybe I’m dreaming but also maybe not. My good friend Greg MacEachern on Friday confessed to being on top of his American right-wing punditry (starts at the 48:30 mark), on the subject of how Canada’s various retaliatory measures are starting to register:
Greg winds up saying the mid-terms will likely have a bigger impact for Canada than any direct negotiations with a Trump administration and I think he’s right.
But then, in the meantime, what?
What, indeed.
Some excitable corners of conservative twitter have already started demanding Prime Minister Mark Carney resign over his failure to achieve a deal, which most Canadians who haven’t drunk any bleach at all this week agree is an impossible goal.
Canadians on April 28 voted for the leader they thought was best suited to deal with this menace and from where I sit there is no clear indication that they’ve changed their minds about who that leader is.
That said, there are a number of other things Mark Carney promised, starting with those big transformational projects that Leblanc says should start rolling out soon. Ish. I do think in the current context, and given how gargantuan a task it is to turn an economy like Canada’s around on a dime, people will be OK with a slow start provided the projects are good for the country and that progress is sustainable.
We’ll see, I guess.
One last thing. Abacus Data was just out a few days ago with new research on what qualities Canadians want in a political leader and none of this looks good for Pierre Poilievre.
The data tell a compelling story. Canadians have a clear and widely shared view of what they want in a leader: calm under pressure, principled over partisan, thoughtful, strategic, and in touch with ordinary people. When measured against these expectations, Mark Carney significantly outperforms Pierre Poilievre on nearly every dimension. The contrast is especially striking among accessible voters – those open to voting Liberal or Conservative but don’t currently support those parties – who see Carney as better aligned with the leadership qualities they value most.
I’ve lost more political bets than I care to admit against David Coletto and when he comes to clear conclusions like this I pay attention. Below are the graphics synthesizing the research. The only question that matters for Conservatives is whether their current leader (I use the term loosely) can convince Canadians who aren’t already die-hard Poilievre supporters that their opinion of him is wrong.
You won’t fall off your chair when you hear that I have my doubts. What the blue team needs is either 1) a leader fit for the times or 2) wait long enough for the times to change in a way that makes Poilievre Canadians’ #1 choice for leader.
Hahaha, that’s a joke. The only time that called for Poilievre was when Justin Trudeau was in the final two years of his decade as prime minister. I could be wrong, but I don’t think our collective appetite for a Poilievre prime-ministership is pronounced enough to get Justin back in office. Also he’s busy.
David’s post has a lot more details and nuanced analysis of what the numbers mean and I strongly encourage you to go read the whole thing. At the moment and at least until the mid-terms in November 2026, this is Carney’s game and if he pulls off something a little better than a draw, he’ll win.