How do you do game theory worth beans when you’re dealing with an irrational actor who can’t be bothered to act in his own best interests but holds most of the cards?
While I get points for having identified the exact right question, I have to confess that — like everyone else these days — I’ve no idea what the answer might look like.
No, of course that doesn’t stop anyone from speculating. So herewith.
Smart and sophisticated professionals use words like “atypical” to describe the current demolisher of the White House. That’s technocrat-speak for “we have no fucking clue how to deal with this chaotic hurricane of pure nonsense.”
The Canadian government, under two different Liberal prime ministers (aided, if that’s the word, by Doug Ford’s freelancing), has tried just about everything that can be tried with elbows. Up, down, in-between, sideways, accidentally across the face, even the Ronald Reagan plaid-shirted version. Nothing works.
The problem, in a nutshell, is that we are dealing with someone who has convinced himself that when he’s the centre of attention, other people benefit. He’s smart enough to understand vulnerabilities in other people but somehow, when it comes to his own interest, he seems blinded by the spotlight.
Usually, when trying to negotiate with people who aren’t inclined to be your best friend, you have to make plans based on what you think they want. Most of the time — typically, as it were — most rational actors act in their self-interest. If you understand what that is, you can make plans, methodically and strategically, to exploit that knowledge and get to an outcome that works for you by using their self-interest against them.
You see where I’m going with this.
Donald Trump is not typical. He does not want to be signing any deals. He wants people constantly to be attempting to deal with him. The minute something is signed, he loses their attention. That’s one reason why he rips contracts so liberally. All he cares about is the pre-deal stuff. He only lives in the antechamber of predictability.
How do you use that to get to a deal when a deal is actually the last thing he wants? Beats me. I think it beats most people, too, including very smart and experienced people like the prime minister.
My own conclusion is that there is no point trying to reach a deal and the federal government knows that. The smart thing is to play for time because one day Trump won’t be there and at least J.D. Vance is a rational actor.
Still, the Canadian government needs to be seen to be trying, if only for domestic political reasons. I think Canadians are pretty sophisticated citizens but I’m not sure they’ve reached the same conclusion I have, in good part because unlike me, their attention to politics is healthy in the sense that they don’t spend most of their days thinking, reading and writing about it.
Many pundits have been bemoaning the fact that Carney doesn’t communicate much about his tactics and plans with the Canadian public. I’ve made that case myself, a few weeks ago. I think I’m changing my mind.
First of all, it doesn’t help in dealing with Trump if he knows what Carney is thinking. And also? The fact that we don’t know what the prime minister is thinking is driving the Leader of the Opposition up the wall which is causing him to make all kinds of unforced errors which is of benefit to the Liberal party (but not necessarily the country).
And speaking of Pierre Poilievre…
… then there’s the budget
The budget next week could be very interesting, unless of course it isn’t. I am perfectly aware of Wells’s First Rule of Politics and I would be loathe to second-guess its wisdom. But if I did, I’d say the odds of the Conservatives forcing an election, while low, are not actually zero.
Here’s why: Both Poilievre and his long-time right-hand woman Jenni Byrne (I hear she never really went away completely) probably know as much as I do that this is his last chance to become prime minister. The longer he waits, the worse it gets for him. Right now, the party is not very far behind the Liberals in voting intentions. Poilievre personally is about 20 points behind the prime minister. Clearly, he’s a drag on his party and has been since Justin Trudeau left for more glamorous, er, pursuits. It gets worse with each month, and they must sense what, where I’m from, we call grenouillage — rivals jockeying for position, preparing for that time when it will no longer be seen as too early to push Poilievre out of the leader’s chair.
If I were trying to help Poilievre become prime minister, I’d be telling him to find a very good reason to defeat the Liberals next week and force an election just before Christmas. He’s a dead man walking, what’s he got to lose? Not much.
Happy game theorizing to you too!